World Wheat Production Approaching Last Year’s Record

World Wheat Production Boosted, Approaching Last Year’s Record

World wheat production in 2017/18 is forecast at 751.2 million tons, up 6.3 million tons this month and less than 3 million tons behind last year’s record. Foreign wheat production is also boosted 6.3 million tons this month (the U.S. change is marginal), and is projected 12.5 million tons ahead of last year’s record.

Wheat production forecasts for several countries in the Northern Hemisphere have been revised this month based on harvest reports and official information. The largest increases in wheat output this month are for India, European Union (EU), Russia, Turkey, Canada, and Morocco.

Southern Hemisphere wheat production prospects were reduced this month, with Australian output projected 1.0 million tons lower, at 21.5 million tons. Wheat has reached maturity in the northeast, while wheat in the southern and western regions is going through the last stages of the reproductive period.

Exceptionally dry, warm weather—starting in August and continuing during the critical month of September—reduced wheat prospects in several growing regions of the country. The drought was especially severe in the northeastern part of Australia—in the States of New South Wales and Queensland—reducing the projected national average yield. On the other hand, in the State of Western Australia (which produces 35-40 percent of the country’s wheat), timely September rains are expected to benefit the crop, which at that time was still in its filling stage.

See the largest country changes with brief explanations in table A, while map A shows every production change made this month.

Map A - Wheat production changes for 2017/18, October 2017

Map A - Wheat production changes for 2017/18, October 2017

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply, and Distribution database

Table A - Wheat production at a glance (2017/18), October 2017



Projected 2017/18 World Wheat Feed Use Up This Month

Foreign wheat consumption for 2017/18 is forecast up 2.9 million tons this month to 708.7 million tons.

Global domestic wheat use is also increased, though by a smaller amount than foreign consumption, given a decline in U.S. feed consumption (for the U.S. discussion, see the domestic section). Most of the foreign increase is for wheat feed and residual use, up 1.7 million tons this month to 138.2 million tons. Wheat feed and residual use includes losses in storage and handling. With more low-quality wheat and limited storage, losses in the EU and Russia are expected to affect their feed and residual use this year.

See specific country changes in wheat feed use, with brief explanations in table B. Food, seed, and industrial use is raised this month by 1.7 million tons, led by India, which is expected to use 1.0 million more tons of wheat as its supplies grow.

Table B - Wheat domestic consumption at a glance (2017/18), October 2017



World Wheat Ending Stocks Prospects Projected Higher for 2017/18

World wheat beginning stocks for 2017/18 are projected 0.7 million tons higher this month and wheat production is boosted 6.3 million tons. Projected wheat consumption is also increased, but not enough to offset expanded wheat supplies. Therefore, world wheat ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected up 5.0 million tons this month to reach a new record of 268.1 million tons. Multiple changes in wheat ending stocks are made this month as a result of specific countries’ production and trade revisions (see map B).

Map B - Wheat ending stocks changes for 2017/18, October 2017

Map B - Wheat ending stocks changes for 2017/18, October 2017

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply, and Distribution database


World Wheat Trade Unchanged and Ahead of Last Year’s Record

Projected 2017/18 world wheat trade for the July-June international trade year is unchanged at 181.9 million tons, and is expected to be above last year’s record. Export prospects for a number of countries are revised to reflect changes in wheat supplies, policies, and competitiveness. Reduced production and higher prices in Australia suppress exports for a second month in a row, down 1.0 million tons to 20.0 million. Higher wheat output for Canada supports its higher projected exports. Strong export sales justify an increase in Argentine wheat exports.

With increased wheat output, India is projected to import 3.5 million tons of wheat in 2017/18, down 0.5 million tons from the previous projection. Turkey is also projected to lower its imports by 0.5 million tons, as its wheat supplies are growing.

For at-a-glance information on this month’s changes in wheat trade with country-specific details, see table C; and for all changes in imports, including the smaller ones, see map C below.

Table C - Wheat trade at a glance (2017/18), October 2017

Map C - Wheat imports changes for 2017/18, October 2017

Map C - Wheat imports changes for 2017/18, October 2017

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply, and Distribution database
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